@Article{RabeloCostaGRCAOCFLM:2022:FaHoMo,
               author = "RabeloCosta, Taynara and Gomes, Paulo Weslem Portal and Rocha, 
                         Brenda Oliveira and Cruz, Iury Leite and Alves, Ravena Santiago 
                         and Oliveira, Ti{\^e} Rocha de Sousa and Cordeiro, Jos{\'e} 
                         Lu{\'{\i}}s Passos and Fernandes, Moabe Ferreira and Lughadha, 
                         Eimear Nic and Moro, Marcelo Freire",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal do Cear{\'a} (UFC)} and {Universidade 
                         Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal do 
                         Cear{\'a} (UFC)} and {Universidade Federal do Cear{\'a} (UFC)} 
                         and {Universidade Federal do Cear{\'a} (UFC)} and 
                         {Funda{\c{c}}{\~a}o Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal do Cear{\'a} (UFC)} and {Royal Botanic Gardens} and 
                         {Universidade Federal do Cear{\'a} (UFC)}",
                title = "The fate of Holoregmia, a monospecific genus endemic to the 
                         Brazilian Caatinga, under different future climate scenarios",
              journal = "Plant Ecology and Evolution",
                 year = "2022",
               volume = "155",
               number = "2",
                pages = "261--274",
             keywords = "biogeographic distribution, biological conservation, Brazilian 
                         semi-arid region, ecological niche modelling, ENMTML, Holoregmia 
                         viscida.",
             abstract = "Background and aims Climatic fluctuations during the Pleistocene 
                         altered the distribution of many species and even entire biomes, 
                         allowing some species to increase their range while others 
                         underwent reductions. Recent and ongoing anthropogenic climate 
                         change is altering climatic patterns very rapidly and is likely to 
                         impact species distributions over shorter timescales than previous 
                         natural fluctuations. Therefore, we aimed to understand how 
                         Pleistocene and Holocene climatic fluctuations might have shaped 
                         the current distribution of Holoregmia and explore its expected 
                         distribution under future climate scenarios. Material and methods 
                         We modelled the potential distribution of Holoregmia viscida 
                         (Martyniaceae), a monospecific plant genus endemic to the 
                         semi-arid Caatinga Domain in Brazil. We used an ensemble approach 
                         to model suitable areas for Holoregmia under present conditions, 
                         Paleoclimatic scenarios, and global warming scenarios in 2050 and 
                         2090. Key results Holocene climates in most Caatinga were too 
                         humid for Holoregmia, which restricted its suitable areas to the 
                         southern Caatinga, similar to its current distribution. However, 
                         under global warming scenarios, the Caatinga is expected to become 
                         too dry for this lineage, resulting in a steady decline in the 
                         area suitable for Holoregmia and even its possible extinction 
                         under the most pessimistic scenario modelled. Conclusion The 
                         predicted extinction of the ancient and highly specialized 
                         Holoregmia viscida highlights the possible consequences of climate 
                         change for some species of endemic Caatinga flora. Invaluable 
                         phylogenetic diversity may be lost in the coming decades, 
                         representing millions of years of unique evolutionary history and 
                         consequent loss of evolutionary potential to adapt to future 
                         environmental changes in semi-arid environments.",
                  doi = "10.5091/plecevo.90511",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.5091/plecevo.90511",
                 issn = "{2032-3913;} and 2032-3921",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "plecevo_article_90511_en_1.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "30 abr. 2024"
}